Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-21 21:18

55%
Win Probability
+10.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-10.0 to +30.0]
0
Boom Potential
None
4
Bust Risk
Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Rams D/ST (60%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):
RB: 🔒 Omarion Hampton 16.5 pts
WR: 🔒 Jameson Williams 12.0 pts
RB/WR/TE: 🔒 Marvin Harrison Jr. 2.4 pts
K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts
TE: 🔒 Juwan Johnson 16.9 pts
QB: 🔒 Jacoby Brissett 10.6 pts
D/ST: 🔒 Chargers D/ST 4.0 pts

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN18.724.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA15.216.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Tyjae Spears NO8.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR19.920.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN13.918.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEX Harrison Mevis 0.0---MEDIUM
D/ST Rams D/ST ATL4.27.0BUSTMEDIUM
WR Tetairoa McMillan CIN13.216.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAR)
DROP: Jordan Love

DEBATE (3/4): Week 16 13.0 pts (HOT). Myers 2.0 bust. McPherson OUT (IR). START immediately.

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS Week 17 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins. UPDATED with Week 16 accuracy analysis (29.4% mode accuracy, QB over-projected by 10.8 pts, RB/TE under-projected). 6 Crystal Society debates: (1) Brissett 4/4 vs CIN worst QB defense, (2) Spears 3/4 for JAX worst RB defense, (3) McMillan 3/4 over injured MHJ, (4) Rams D/ST 2-2 tie resolved, (5) NEW: Mevis 3/4 over Myers (McPherson OUT on IR), (6) NEW: Johnson 4/4 over Hunter Henry. Key waiver move: ADD Mevis, DROP Love.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

95.1 - 85.1 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (16)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB ✓ 10.6 18.7 24.0 -13.4
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 7.1 15.2 16.0 -8.9
Omarion Hampton RB RB ✓ 16.5 13.2 14.0 +2.5
Jameson Williams WR WR ✓ 12.0 15.9 18.0 -6.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR ✓ 23.6 19.9 20.0 +3.6
Juwan Johnson TE TE ✓ 16.9 9.1 10.0 +6.9
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 2.4 12.2 18.0 -15.6
Jason Myers K K ✓ 2.0 8.1 12.0 -10.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 4.0 4.2 12.0 -8.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE ✓ 5.6 7.5 5.0 +0.6
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE ✓ 13.5 9.3 6.0 +7.5
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE ✓ 7.1 11.2 6.0 +1.1
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 3.8 17.3 5.0 -1.2
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE ✓ 4.0 5.6 7.0 -3.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE ✓ 19.3 13.1 16.0 +3.3
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE ✓ 21.5 8.7 10.0 +11.5

Games Pending (1)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
95.1 Actual
133.0 LLM Total
95.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (15)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB ✓ 12.7 16.6 --- -3.9
Kareem Hunt RB RB ✓ 0.2 11.0 --- -10.8
Rico Dowdle RB RB ✓ 8.3 15.2 --- -6.9
DK Metcalf WR WR ✓ 8.2 13.5 --- -5.3
Michael Wilson WR WR ✓ 13.2 14.1 --- -0.9
Trey McBride TE TE ✓ 6.7 16.8 --- -10.1
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB/WR/TE ✓ 22.8 23.9 --- -1.1
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 11.0 8.0 --- +3.0
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 2.0 5.7 --- -3.7
Aaron Rodgers (bench) QB BE ✓ 15.5 14.8 --- +0.7
Colby Parkinson (bench) TE BE ✓ 4.1 9.6 --- -5.5
Darren Waller (bench) TE BE ✓ 7.0 9.3 --- -2.3
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE ✓ 4.6 10.5 --- -5.9
Michael Carter (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.5 11.0 --- -4.5
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 19.4 9.6 --- +9.8

Opponent Games Pending (1)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Rome Odunze (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
85.1 Opp Actual
125.0 Opp LLM Total
85.1 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +8.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Injured Week 16 vs CHI. Only 6 days before Week 17 Saturday game @ BAL. Average protocol is 9 days. 70% likely OUT per reports. BAL is 3rd vs QB if he plays. Mode: BUST (protocol + elite defense). Projection: 5.0 pts (CONDITIONAL - if plays, else 0).

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 18.7 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM. CIN allows 23.85 FPPG to QBs (WORST in NFL, 32nd). Game total 50.5 (highest Week 17). CHAMPIONSHIP CEILING PLAY. Mode: BOOM (elite matchup overrides low XGB). Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 18-28).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. MIA 29th vs RB (27.31 FPPG allowed). Clear lead back. Mode: MODERATE (good matchup but XGB bust signal). Projection: 16.0 pts (upper MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 51% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 38% BUST. TEN @ NO - uncertain. Timeshare with Henry. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-16).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 58% BUST. HOU game TBD. Starting RB role. Mode: MODERATE (volume play). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 60% BUST. NYG vs LV - Giants bad. Clear bust signal from both models. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 13% BOOM / 17% MODERATE / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. KC @ DEN - Minshew at QB. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs may rest with clinched #1. Mode: BUST (injury + rest scenario). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-8).

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM / 52% MODERATE. XGB: 11% BOOM / 23% BUST. SEA vs CAR - favorable matchup. WR1 in Seattle. Mode: MODERATE (high-end). Projection: 20.0 pts (top of MODERATE range 9-24).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 15% BOOM / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (CIN 32nd vs WR, allows 43.49 FPPG). With MHJ limited, McMillan gets targets. Mode: MODERATE (matchup elite but role uncertainty). Projection: 16.0 pts (upper MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (!) / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (32nd vs WR). Heel injury lingering but CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - must ride ceiling. XGB 42% boom is highest on roster. Mode: BOOM (ceiling chase + elite matchup). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 14-28).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: SEASON OVER. LCL tear Week 4 (Sep 29, 2024). Surgery performed. On IR. Source: NFL.com official transaction. Projection: 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 51% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 43% BUST. DET @ SF on MNF - tough matchup (SF 7th vs WR). But DET high-powered. Mode: MODERATE (ceiling capped by elite D). Projection: 18.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. GB @ BAL - tough D (9th vs WR). QB uncertainty (Love concussion, Willis shoulder). Had 0 catches in first half with Willis. Mode: BUST (QB disaster). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 2-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 47% MODERATE. XGB: 19% BOOM / 56% BUST. NO vs TEN - neutral matchup. Derek Carr doubtful. Mode: MODERATE (Carr uncertainty). Projection: 10.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 6-15).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Injured Week 16 vs CHI. Only 6 days before Week 17 Saturday game @ BAL. Average protocol is 9 days. 70% likely OUT per reports. BAL is 3rd vs QB if he plays. Mode: BUST (protocol + elite defense). Projection: 5.0 pts (CONDITIONAL - if plays, else 0).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs CIN

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 18.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (!) / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (32nd vs WR). Heel injury lingering but CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - must ride ceiling. XGB 42% boom is highest on roster. Mode: BOOM (ceiling chase + elite matchup). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 14-28).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: SEASON OVER. LCL tear Week 4 (Sep 29, 2024). Surgery performed. On IR. Source: NFL.com official transaction. Projection: 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 19% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 58% BUST. HOU game TBD. Starting RB role. Mode: MODERATE (volume play). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Jason Myers (K) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 23% BOOM / 22% BUST. SEA vs CAR - favorable game script. K1 all season (87 pts). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-14).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.513.024.0+15.5
14ATL8.310.014.0+5.7
13MIN8.59.019.0+10.5
12TEN8.5-13.0+4.5
11LAR8.1-14.0+5.9
10ARI8.5-15.0+6.5
9WSH8.5-9.0+0.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU8.1-9.0+0.9
6JAX8.2-10.0+1.8
5TB8.1-4.0-4.1
4ARI7.8-13.0+5.2
3NO8.1-17.0+8.9
2PIT7.5-8.0+0.5
1SF8.3-8.0-0.3
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.8 pts vs 7.7 projected (+54%)
  • Trending up: 19.0 avg (last 3) vs 14.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 24.0 pts in Week 15

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 11% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 60% BUST. NYG vs LV - Giants bad. Clear bust signal from both models. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Chargers D/ST (D/ST) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 22% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 55% | Bust 15%

Notes: MC: 36% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 55% BOOM / 15% BUST. LAC vs HOU - solid matchup. XGB shows strong boom signal (55%!). Mode: BOOM (XGB aligns). Projection: 12.0 pts (within BOOM range 10-20).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC5.2-14.0+8.8
14PHI5.2-10.0+4.8
13LV9.1-11.0+1.9
11JAX7.2--1.0-8.2
10PIT5.6-16.0+10.4
9TEN7.0-7.0+0.0
8MIN5.8-13.0+7.2
7IND3.7--5.0-8.7
6MIA4.7-8.0+3.3
5WSH5.3-2.0-3.3
4NYG7.5-8.0+0.5
3DEN6.1-4.0-2.1
2LV5.8-14.0+8.2
1KC3.8-2.0-1.8
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 5.8 projected (+26%)
  • Trending up: 11.7 avg (last 3) vs 7.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 16.0 pts in Week 10

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 13% BOOM / 17% MODERATE / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. KC @ DEN - Minshew at QB. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs may rest with clinched #1. Mode: BUST (injury + rest scenario). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-8).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. GB @ BAL - tough D (9th vs WR). QB uncertainty (Love concussion, Willis shoulder). Had 0 catches in first half with Willis. Mode: BUST (QB disaster). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 2-10).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Jaguars D/ST D/ST JAX 5.7 9.1 48% 32% 20% HIGH
DK Metcalf WR PIT 13.5 12.6 30% 50% 20% MEDIUM
Kareem Hunt RB KC 11.0 10.2 24% 38% 39% MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield QB TB 16.6 17.2 18% 59% 23% LOW
Trey McBride TE ARI 16.8 17.2 17% 63% 20% LOW
Harrison Butker K KC 8.0 8.3 16% 26% 57% LOW
Rico Dowdle RB CAR 15.2 13.1 14% 59% 27% LOW
Michael Wilson WR ARI 14.1 12.5 8% 36% 56% LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 23.9 20.4 7% 23% 70% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Kareem Hunt: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 39%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAR)
vs vs SEA
ESPN: 0.0 Trend: DROP: Jordan Love

DEBATE (3/4): Week 16 13.0 pts (HOT). Myers 2.0 bust. McPherson OUT (IR). START immediately.


MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Chargers D/ST (Elite ceiling (22 pts)), Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
DROP Rashee Rice WR
Boom%25%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV7.9
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,
Boom%24%
Bust%38%
EV7.7
BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)
ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,
Boom%20%
Bust%30%
EV8.5
BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 7.9 27% 24% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.7 24% 38% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.5 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 0.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.6 18% 45% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 9.0 16% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.4 15% 55% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 12.0 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.7 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.0 14% 51% 0.0%
Rashid Shaheed WR 10.4 14% 53% 0.0%
Sam Darnold QB 15.4 13% 44% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.9 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.6 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 7.7 BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.4 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 12.0 BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.4 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.5 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 7.9 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.7 BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden 13.8 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 0.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 9.0 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.6 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Commanders D/ST 7.7 24% 38%
Bears D/ST 8.5 20% 30%
Dolphins D/ST 8.4 15% 55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-21 21:18

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+10.0
Expected Margin
133.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
125.0
Opponent (Proj)
32.9
Margin Std Dev
120.1
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -43.0 pts | Median: -0.3 pts | Ceiling: +41.1 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 24.0 4.4-28.0 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 16.0 5.0-23.4 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 14.0 3.7-24.5 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 20.0 6.4-30.3 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 18.0 3.7-21.8 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 18.0 4.3-26.2 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.9-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 12.0 1.0-18.1 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 26% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 12.0 5.4-19.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 5.0 6.7-27.3 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 10.0 2.5-18.1 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 5.0 0.6-18.1 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 6.0 2.2-15.2 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 16.0 4.9-25.3 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 6.0 4.6-21.8 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 1.0-18.2 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 35% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB MED 17.1 6.4-27.9 ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 20.5 7.6-39.4 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 1% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 13.1 3.4-27.0 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 18% Rico Dowdle
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.3 2.3-20.1 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 28% Kareem Hunt
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 12.7 5.0-22.8 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 12.5 3.3-30.0 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 26% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 17.2 8.2-29.1 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.1 0.5-17.8 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 8.3 2.8-14.7 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 27% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Aaron Rodgers QB HIGH 14.8 5.8-25.3 ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 7% Aaron Rodgers
Michael Carter RB HIGH 8.7 1.6-17.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 32% Michael Carter
Rome Odunze WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rome Odunze
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 12.2 5.4-21.3 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.3 2.6-20.3 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 26% Romeo Doubs
Darren Waller TE HIGH 12.2 3.1-23.4 ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 26% Darren Waller
Colby Parkinson TE HIGH 9.2 2.3-18.9 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 32% Colby Parkinson

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.1 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.1
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.8 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.3 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST4.212.0BOOM55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.218.0BOOM42.3%35.3%22.4%
Jordan LoveQB17.35.0BUST26.7%52.3%21.0%
Rashee RiceWR0.00.0OUT24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.112.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.710.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.216.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB18.724.0BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Bucky IrvingRB15.216.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR11.26.0BUST12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.918.0MODERATE12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB9.36.0BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR19.920.0MODERATE11.4%66.0%22.6%
Rams D/STD/ST4.27.0BUST10.6%29.7%59.7%
Devin SingletaryRB7.55.0BUST9.6%30.1%60.4%
Omarion HamptonRB13.214.0MODERATE9.0%33.3%57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1993.5 1800.6 +192.9 132.3 vs 124.1 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1856.2 1860.5 -4.3 85.1 vs 95.1 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1917.9 1643.7 +274.2 95.1 vs 85.1 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1884.0 1857.2 +26.8 124.1 vs 132.3 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1853.6 1800.3 +53.3 147.7 vs 68.4 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1583.4 1812.6 -229.2 68.4 vs 147.7 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1791.8 1812.8 -21.0 61.2 vs 138.1 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1803.0 1839.7 -36.7 138.1 vs 61.2 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1757.8 1740.3 +17.4 93.3 vs 93.4 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1746.9 1845.3 -98.4 93.4 vs 93.3 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1715.6 1806.9 -91.3 131.6 vs 117.3 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1815.2 1898.9 -83.8 117.3 vs 131.6 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 132.3 @ 124.1 Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches 85.1 @ 95.1 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 147.7 @ 68.4 Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club 61.2 @ 138.1 Moms rules
Smooth Roosters 93.3 @ 93.4 The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 131.6 @ 117.3 Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Analysis Sessions

19:30 Data pipeline run, 4 Crystal Society debates (QB, RB2, FLEX, D/ST), initial lineup set.

Initial Analysis

Data Pipeline

  • ESPN roster/matchup data fetched
  • Bayesian posteriors generated
  • MC density histograms created
  • XGB predictions generated

Key Debates Run

  1. QB (4/4): Brissett over Darnold - CIN 32nd vs QB
  2. RB2 (3/4): Spears over Hampton - JAX 32nd vs RB
  3. FLEX (3/4): McMillan over MHJ - health > injury
  4. D/ST (2-2): Rams by credibility weighting

Initial Projected Total: 133.0 pts

22:00 Analyzed Week 16 projection accuracy (29.4% mode accuracy), identified systematic biases, ran 2 new debates.

Week 16 Accuracy Analysis

Performance Review

  • Week 16 Result: WIN (95.1 vs 85.1)
  • LLM Mode Accuracy: 29.4% (5/17 correct)
  • Mean Absolute Error: 6.30 pts

Systematic Biases Found

Position Bias Direction
QB -10.8 pts OVER-projected
RB +3.0 pts UNDER-projected
TE +7.9 pts UNDER-projected
D/ST -4.0 pts OVER-projected

Week 16 Validation

  • MHJ injury call CORRECT: 15.0 proj → 2.4 actual
  • McMillan underestimated: 13.0 proj → 19.3 actual (BOOM)
  • Spears underestimated: 10.0 proj → 21.5 actual (BOOM)
  • Johnson underestimated: 9.0 proj → 16.9 actual (BOOM)
  • Brissett overestimated: 21.0 proj → 10.6 actual

Historical Trends (Weeks 12-15)

  • LLM beats ESPN every week (5.54 vs 6.05 MAE)
  • Best projected: Spears (1.0 error), Brissett (1.7)
  • Worst projected: JSN (13.2 error), J. Williams (9.3)
22:15 Ran 2 new Crystal Society debates for kicker and TE positions based on Week 16 learnings.

New Debates (Post-Retrospective)

Debate #5: Kicker (3/4)

Question: Myers vs Mevis vs McPherson

Key Finding: McPherson OUT (IR groin injury)

Kicker Week 16 Trend Result
Mevis 13.0 HOT WINNER
Myers 2.0 BUST Keep as backup
McPherson IR OUT Eliminated

Action: ADD Mevis, DROP Jordan Love


Debate #6: TE (4/4 Unanimous)

Question: Juwan Johnson vs Hunter Henry

Metric Johnson Henry
Boom Prob 30.0% 11.6%
Bust Prob 24.9% 50.6%
Week 16 16.9 2.8
Matchup vs LV (soft) vs BAL (tough)

Result: Keep Johnson (unanimous)

22:30 Adjusted all projections based on Week 16 bias analysis. Revised total: ~136 pts.

Revised Week 17 Projections

Bias Adjustments Applied

Player Original Revised Adjustment
Brissett 24.0 22.0 QB over-proj
Spears 10.0 14.0 RB under-proj
Johnson 12.0 14.0 TE under-proj
Irving 16.0 14.0 RB regression
McMillan 16.0 17.0 Week 16 boom
Mevis (NEW) - 10.0 Add from FA

Final Lineup

Slot Player Proj
QB Brissett 22.0
RB1 Irving 14.0
RB2 Spears 14.0
WR1 JSN 20.0
WR2 Williams 18.0
TE Johnson 14.0
FLEX McMillan 17.0
K Mevis 10.0
D/ST Rams 7.0

REVISED TOTAL: ~136 pts

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

  • Jordan Love: Concussion protocol. DROP for Mevis add.
  • Evan McPherson: OUT (IR groin) - eliminates kicker stack opportunity
  • MHJ: Heel injury validated Week 16 (2.4 pts). BENCHED.
  • Burrow: Left Week 16 game (Flacco in). Monitor for Week 17.

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

  • ARI @ CIN: 50.5 total (HIGHEST Week 17) - SHOOTOUT
  • DET @ SF: 50.0 total - High-scoring MNF
  • SEA vs CAR: 43.5 total - SEA favored

Defense Rankings (Week 17 Opponents)

  • CIN vs QB: 32nd (WORST) - 23.85 FPPG
  • CIN vs WR: 32nd (WORST) - 43.49 FPPG
  • JAX vs RB: 32nd (WORST) - 31.75 FPPG

All 6 Crystal Society Debates

  1. QB (4/4): Brissett - CIN elite matchup
  2. RB2 (3/4): Spears - JAX elite matchup
  3. FLEX (3/4): McMillan - health > injury
  4. D/ST (2-2): Rams - credibility weighting
  5. K (3/4): Mevis - McPherson OUT, Myers bust
  6. TE (4/4): Johnson - boom prob + Week 16 validation

Week 16 Learnings Applied

  • Mode accuracy was 29.4% - room to improve
  • QB over-projected by 10.8 pts → reduce Brissett ceiling
  • RB/TE under-projected → raise Spears, Johnson
  • BOOM predictions often busted (3/4 wrong)
  • BUST predictions for RBs often boomed

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

6.1
Our Team MAE
17 players
5.1
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.7
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.2 18.0 2.4 -15.6
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.7 24.0 10.6 -13.4
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Opponent RB Kareem Hunt 11.0 - 0.2 -10.8
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 12.0 2.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 16.0 7.1 -8.9
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.3 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 16.9 +6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 18.0 12.0 -6.0
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.7 - 2.0 -3.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 20.0 23.6 +3.6
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 16.0 19.3 +3.3
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 7.0 4.0 -3.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 14.0 16.5 +2.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.3 5.0 3.8 -1.2
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 6.0 7.1 +1.1
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.9 - 22.8 -1.1
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 14.1 - 13.2 -0.9
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 5.0 5.6 +0.6
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
7.1
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.8
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 8.0 +8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 17.3 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 6.7 pts
Median (50th) 15.6 pts
90th percentile 27.6 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.2 pts
90th percentile 23.6 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 19.9 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 17.9 pts
90th percentile 30.2 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 25.5 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 12.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 23.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 16.6 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.4 pts
90th percentile 26.3 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.5 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 7.5 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.5 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 24.0 pts
ESPN 18.7 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.4 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 9.3 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.7 pts
90th percentile 15.2 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 11.2 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 10.1 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Jahmyr Gibbs distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 23.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 7.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 39.3 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
7% BOOM
Trey McBride (TE)
Trey McBride distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
41%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 8.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 29.4 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
DK Metcalf (WR)
DK Metcalf distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.5 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 22.5 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
30% BOOM
Michael Wilson (WR)
Michael Wilson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 14.1 pts
BUST
55%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 8.6 pts
90th percentile 30.5 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.6 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
52%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 17.1 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Rico Dowdle (RB)
Rico Dowdle distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 27.4 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Kareem Hunt (RB)
Kareem Hunt distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 11.0 pts
BUST
36%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 9.0 pts
90th percentile 20.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST)
Jaguars D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.7 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.6 pts
90th percentile 17.7 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Harrison Butker (K)
Harrison Butker distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 14.7 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM