55%

Win Probability

+10.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-10.0 to +30.0]

Boom Potential

None

Bust Risk

Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Rams D/ST (60%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):

RB: 🔒 Omarion Hampton 16.5 pts

WR: 🔒 Jameson Williams 12.0 pts

RB/WR/TE: 🔒 Marvin Harrison Jr. 2.4 pts

K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts

TE: 🔒 Juwan Johnson 16.9 pts

QB: 🔒 Jacoby Brissett 10.6 pts

D/ST: 🔒 Chargers D/ST 4.0 pts

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	18.7	24.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	15.2	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Tyjae Spears	NO	8.7	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	19.9	20.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	MIN	13.9	18.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	9.7	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
FLEX	Harrison Mevis		0.0	---		MEDIUM
D/ST	Rams D/ST	ATL	4.2	7.0	BUST	MEDIUM
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	CIN	13.2	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAR)

DROP: Jordan Love

DEBATE (3/4): Week 16 13.0 pts (HOT). Myers 2.0 bust. McPherson OUT (IR). START immediately.

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS Week 17 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins. UPDATED with Week 16 accuracy analysis (29.4% mode accuracy, QB over-projected by 10.8 pts, RB/TE under-projected). 6 Crystal Society debates: (1) Brissett 4/4 vs CIN worst QB defense, (2) Spears 3/4 for JAX worst RB defense, (3) McMillan 3/4 over injured MHJ, (4) Rams D/ST 2-2 tie resolved, (5) NEW: Mevis 3/4 over Myers (McPherson OUT on IR), (6) NEW: Johnson 4/4 over Hunter Henry. Key waiver move: ADD Mevis, DROP Love.

Key Insights

WEEK 16 LEARNINGS: LLM mode accuracy 29.4% (5/17). QB over-projected by 10.8 pts. RB/TE under-projected by 3-8 pts. Adjust expectations.
MEVIS > MYERS (NEW DEBATE 3/4): McPherson OUT (IR groin). Mevis 13.0 Week 16 (HOT) vs Myers 2.0 (wind bust). ADD Mevis, DROP Love.
JOHNSON VALIDATED (NEW DEBATE 4/4 unanimous): Week 16 Johnson 16.9 pts (BOOM). 30% boom prob vs Henry 11.6%. Henry 50.6% bust too risky.
BRISSETT SMASH: CIN 32nd vs QB (23.85 FPPG). BUT Week 16 LLM 21.0 -> actual 10.6. Reduce ceiling expectation to 20-22 range.
SPEARS BOOM POTENTIAL: Week 16 LLM 10.0 -> actual 21.5 (BOOM). RB under-projection confirmed. JAX 32nd vs RB. Raise projection.
MHJ BENCHED: Week 16 validated injury concern (15.0 proj -> 2.4 actual). McMillan 13.0 -> 19.3 BOOM. Right call.
MCPHERSON ELIMINATED: IR with groin injury since Week 13. Cade York replacement. Stack opportunity lost.
LOVE OUT: Concussion protocol. DROP for Mevis add.
QUENTIN JOHNSTON AVOIDED: WR69 since Week 5. Only 5 catches for 31 yards last 3 games. Too inconsistent.

Matchup Status (Week 17)

95.1 - 85.1 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	✓ 10.6	18.7	24.0	-13.4
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	✓ 7.1	15.2	16.0	-8.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	✓ 16.5	13.2	14.0	+2.5
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	✓ 12.0	15.9	18.0	-6.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	✓ 23.6	19.9	20.0	+3.6
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	✓ 16.9	9.1	10.0	+6.9
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 2.4	12.2	18.0	-15.6
Jason Myers	K	K	✓ 2.0	8.1	12.0	-10.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 4.0	4.2	12.0	-8.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 5.6	7.5	5.0	+0.6
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 13.5	9.3	6.0	+7.5
Jayden Reed (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 7.1	11.2	6.0	+1.1
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 3.8	17.3	5.0	-1.2
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	✓ 4.0	5.6	7.0	-3.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 19.3	13.1	16.0	+3.3
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 21.5	8.7	10.0	+11.5

Games Pending (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

95.1 Actual

133.0 LLM Total

95.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Baker Mayfield	QB	QB	✓ 12.7	16.6	---	-3.9
Kareem Hunt	RB	RB	✓ 0.2	11.0	---	-10.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	RB	✓ 8.3	15.2	---	-6.9
DK Metcalf	WR	WR	✓ 8.2	13.5	---	-5.3
Michael Wilson	WR	WR	✓ 13.2	14.1	---	-0.9
Trey McBride	TE	TE	✓ 6.7	16.8	---	-10.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	RB/WR/TE	✓ 22.8	23.9	---	-1.1
Harrison Butker	K	K	✓ 11.0	8.0	---	+3.0
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 2.0	5.7	---	-3.7
Aaron Rodgers (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 15.5	14.8	---	+0.7
Colby Parkinson (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 4.1	9.6	---	-5.5
Darren Waller (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 7.0	9.3	---	-2.3
Jordan Addison (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 4.6	10.5	---	-5.9
Michael Carter (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 6.5	11.0	---	-4.5
Romeo Doubs (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 19.4	9.6	---	+9.8

Opponent Games Pending (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Rome Odunze (bench)	WR	BE	0.0	---

85.1 Opp Actual

125.0 Opp LLM Total

85.1 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +8.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Injured Week 16 vs CHI. Only 6 days before Week 17 Saturday game @ BAL. Average protocol is 9 days. 70% likely OUT per reports. BAL is 3rd vs QB if he plays. Mode: BUST (protocol + elite defense). Projection: 5.0 pts (CONDITIONAL - if plays, else 0).

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 18.7 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM. CIN allows 23.85 FPPG to QBs (WORST in NFL, 32nd). Game total 50.5 (highest Week 17). CHAMPIONSHIP CEILING PLAY. Mode: BOOM (elite matchup overrides low XGB). Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 18-28).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. MIA 29th vs RB (27.31 FPPG allowed). Clear lead back. Mode: MODERATE (good matchup but XGB bust signal). Projection: 16.0 pts (upper MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 51% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 38% BUST. TEN @ NO - uncertain. Timeshare with Henry. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-16).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 58% BUST. HOU game TBD. Starting RB role. Mode: MODERATE (volume play). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 60% BUST. NYG vs LV - Giants bad. Clear bust signal from both models. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 13% BOOM / 17% MODERATE / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. KC @ DEN - Minshew at QB. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs may rest with clinched #1. Mode: BUST (injury + rest scenario). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-8).

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM / 52% MODERATE. XGB: 11% BOOM / 23% BUST. SEA vs CAR - favorable matchup. WR1 in Seattle. Mode: MODERATE (high-end). Projection: 20.0 pts (top of MODERATE range 9-24).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 15% BOOM / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (CIN 32nd vs WR, allows 43.49 FPPG). With MHJ limited, McMillan gets targets. Mode: MODERATE (matchup elite but role uncertainty). Projection: 16.0 pts (upper MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (!) / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (32nd vs WR). Heel injury lingering but CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - must ride ceiling. XGB 42% boom is highest on roster. Mode: BOOM (ceiling chase + elite matchup). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 14-28).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: SEASON OVER. LCL tear Week 4 (Sep 29, 2024). Surgery performed. On IR. Source: NFL.com official transaction. Projection: 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 51% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 43% BUST. DET @ SF on MNF - tough matchup (SF 7th vs WR). But DET high-powered. Mode: MODERATE (ceiling capped by elite D). Projection: 18.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. GB @ BAL - tough D (9th vs WR). QB uncertainty (Love concussion, Willis shoulder). Had 0 catches in first half with Willis. Mode: BUST (QB disaster). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 2-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 47% MODERATE. XGB: 19% BOOM / 56% BUST. NO vs TEN - neutral matchup. Derek Carr doubtful. Mode: MODERATE (Carr uncertainty). Projection: 10.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 6-15).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Injured Week 16 vs CHI. Only 6 days before Week 17 Saturday game @ BAL. Average protocol is 9 days. 70% likely OUT per reports. BAL is 3rd vs QB if he plays. Mode: BUST (protocol + elite defense). Projection: 5.0 pts (CONDITIONAL - if plays, else 0).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs CIN

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 18.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (!) / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (32nd vs WR). Heel injury lingering but CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - must ride ceiling. XGB 42% boom is highest on roster. Mode: BOOM (ceiling chase + elite matchup). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 14-28).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: SEASON OVER. LCL tear Week 4 (Sep 29, 2024). Surgery performed. On IR. Source: NFL.com official transaction. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 19% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 58% BUST. HOU game TBD. Starting RB role. Mode: MODERATE (volume play). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Jason Myers (K) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 23% BOOM / 22% BUST. SEA vs CAR - favorable game script. K1 all season (87 pts). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-14).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.5	13.0	24.0	+15.5
14	ATL	8.3	10.0	14.0	+5.7
13	MIN	8.5	9.0	19.0	+10.5
12	TEN	8.5	-	13.0	+4.5
11	LAR	8.1	-	14.0	+5.9
10	ARI	8.5	-	15.0	+6.5
9	WSH	8.5	-	9.0	+0.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	8.1	-	9.0	+0.9
6	JAX	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
5	TB	8.1	-	4.0	-4.1
4	ARI	7.8	-	13.0	+5.2
3	NO	8.1	-	17.0	+8.9
2	PIT	7.5	-	8.0	+0.5
1	SF	8.3	-	8.0	-0.3

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.8 pts vs 7.7 projected (+54%)
Trending up: 19.0 avg (last 3) vs 14.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 24.0 pts in Week 15

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 11% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 60% BUST. NYG vs LV - Giants bad. Clear bust signal from both models. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Chargers D/ST (D/ST) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 22% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 55% | Bust 15%

Notes: MC: 36% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 55% BOOM / 15% BUST. LAC vs HOU - solid matchup. XGB shows strong boom signal (55%!). Mode: BOOM (XGB aligns). Projection: 12.0 pts (within BOOM range 10-20).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	5.2	-	14.0	+8.8
14	PHI	5.2	-	10.0	+4.8
13	LV	9.1	-	11.0	+1.9
11	JAX	7.2	-	-1.0	-8.2
10	PIT	5.6	-	16.0	+10.4
9	TEN	7.0	-	7.0	+0.0
8	MIN	5.8	-	13.0	+7.2
7	IND	3.7	-	-5.0	-8.7
6	MIA	4.7	-	8.0	+3.3
5	WSH	5.3	-	2.0	-3.3
4	NYG	7.5	-	8.0	+0.5
3	DEN	6.1	-	4.0	-2.1
2	LV	5.8	-	14.0	+8.2
1	KC	3.8	-	2.0	-1.8

3-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 7.4 pts vs 5.8 projected (+26%)
Trending up: 11.7 avg (last 3) vs 7.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 16.0 pts in Week 10

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 13% BOOM / 17% MODERATE / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. KC @ DEN - Minshew at QB. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs may rest with clinched #1. Mode: BUST (injury + rest scenario). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-8).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. GB @ BAL - tough D (9th vs WR). QB uncertainty (Love concussion, Willis shoulder). Had 0 catches in first half with Willis. Mode: BUST (QB disaster). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 2-10).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	JAX	5.7	9.1	48%	32%	20%	HIGH
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.5	12.6	30%	50%	20%	MEDIUM
Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	11.0	10.2	24%	38%	39%	MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	16.6	17.2	18%	59%	23%	LOW
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	16.8	17.2	17%	63%	20%	LOW
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8.0	8.3	16%	26%	57%	LOW
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	15.2	13.1	14%	59%	27%	LOW
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	14.1	12.5	8%	36%	56%	LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	23.9	20.4	7%	23%	70%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Kareem Hunt: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 39%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAR)

vs vs SEA

ESPN: 0.0 Trend: DROP: Jordan Love

DEBATE (3/4): Week 16 13.0 pts (HOT). Myers 2.0 bust. McPherson OUT (IR). START immediately.

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Chargers D/ST (Elite ceiling (22 pts)), Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.2

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

DROP Rashee Rice WR

Boom%25%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%27%

Bust%24%

EV7.9

BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,

Boom%24%

Bust%38%

EV7.7

BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)

ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,

Boom%20%

Bust%30%

EV8.5

BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.2	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	7.9	27%	24%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	7.7	24%	38%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.5	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	0.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.6	18%	45%	0.0%
Harrison Mevis	K	9.0	16%	48%	0.0%
Dolphins D/ST	D/ST	8.4	15%	55%	0.0%
Quentin Johnston	WR	12.0	15%	39%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.7	15%	48%	0.0%
49ers D/ST	D/ST	8.0	14%	51%	0.0%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	10.4	14%	53%	0.0%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.4	13%	44%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Sam Darnold	15.4	BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25%	13%	44%
Kyler Murray	16.9	BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.2	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Devin Neal	9.6	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Emanuel Wilson	7.7	BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10%	9%	60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.4	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Quentin Johnston	12.0	BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18%	15%	39%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Rashid Shaheed	10.4	BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30%	14%	53%
Keenan Allen	11.5	BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	7.9	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Hunter Henry	9.7	BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	8%	62%
Oronde Gadsden	13.8	BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50%	0%	0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Matt Prater	0.0	19%	54%
Harrison Mevis	9.0	16%	48%
Evan McPherson	9.6	9%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Commanders D/ST	7.7	24%	38%
Bears D/ST	8.5	20%	30%
Dolphins D/ST	8.4	15%	55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-21 21:18

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+10.0

Expected Margin

133.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

125.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.9

Margin Std Dev

120.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -43.0 pts | Median: -0.3 pts | Ceiling: +41.1 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	24.0	4.4-28.0	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	16.0	5.0-23.4	↑15+: 39% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	14.0	3.7-24.5	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	20.0	6.4-30.3	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	18.0	3.7-21.8	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	18.0	4.3-26.2	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	10.0	2.9-16.6	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 23%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	12.0	1.0-18.1	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 26%
Jason Myers	K	MED	12.0	5.4-19.1	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 8%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	5.0	6.7-27.3	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	10.0	2.5-18.1	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 30%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	5.0	0.6-18.1	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 53%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	6.0	2.2-15.2	↑15+: 10% \| ↓5-: 43%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	16.0	4.9-25.3	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jayden Reed	WR	HIGH	6.0	4.6-21.8	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 13%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	7.0	1.0-18.2	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 35%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Baker Mayfield	QB	MED	17.1	6.4-27.9	↑15+: 59% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	HIGH	20.5	7.6-39.4	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 1%
Rico Dowdle	RB	HIGH	13.1	3.4-27.0	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 18%
Kareem Hunt	RB	HIGH	10.3	2.3-20.1	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 28%
DK Metcalf	WR	HIGH	12.7	5.0-22.8	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 10%
Michael Wilson	WR	HIGH	12.5	3.3-30.0	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 26%
Trey McBride	TE	MED	17.2	8.2-29.1	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 0%
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.1	0.5-17.8	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 30%
Harrison Butker	K	HIGH	8.3	2.8-14.7	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 27%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Aaron Rodgers	QB	HIGH	14.8	5.8-25.3	↑15+: 45% \| ↓5-: 7%
Michael Carter	RB	HIGH	8.7	1.6-17.4	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 32%
Rome Odunze	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%
Jordan Addison	WR	HIGH	12.2	5.4-21.3	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 7%
Romeo Doubs	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.6-20.3	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 26%
Darren Waller	TE	HIGH	12.2	3.1-23.4	↑15+: 41% \| ↓5-: 26%
Colby Parkinson	TE	HIGH	9.2	2.3-18.9	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 32%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.2	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	27% @ 20.1	43% @ 12.0	31% @ 5.2	12.1
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.1	43% @ 12.1	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.8	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.3	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	4.2	12.0	BOOM	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.2	18.0	BOOM	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Jordan Love	QB	17.3	5.0	BUST	26.7%	52.3%	21.0%
Rashee Rice	WR	0.0	0.0	OUT	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.1	12.0	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	10.0	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	8.7	10.0	MODERATE	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	16.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	18.7	24.0	BOOM	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	16.0	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jayden Reed	WR	11.2	6.0	BUST	12.9%	35.6%	51.5%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	18.0	MODERATE	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	9.3	6.0	BUST	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	19.9	20.0	MODERATE	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	7.0	BUST	10.6%	29.7%	59.7%
Devin Singletary	RB	7.5	5.0	BUST	9.6%	30.1%	60.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	13.2	14.0	MODERATE	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1993.5	1800.6	+192.9	132.3 vs 124.1	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1856.2	1860.5	-4.3	85.1 vs 95.1	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1917.9	1643.7	+274.2	95.1 vs 85.1	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1884.0	1857.2	+26.8	124.1 vs 132.3	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1853.6	1800.3	+53.3	147.7 vs 68.4	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1583.4	1812.6	-229.2	68.4 vs 147.7	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1791.8	1812.8	-21.0	61.2 vs 138.1	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1803.0	1839.7	-36.7	138.1 vs 61.2	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1757.8	1740.3	+17.4	93.3 vs 93.4	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1746.9	1845.3	-98.4	93.4 vs 93.3	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1715.6	1806.9	-91.3	131.6 vs 117.3	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1815.2	1898.9	-83.8	117.3 vs 131.6	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	132.3	@	124.1	Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches	85.1	@	95.1	Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year	147.7	@	68.4	Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club	61.2	@	138.1	Moms rules
Smooth Roosters	93.3	@	93.4	The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	131.6	@	117.3	Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Analysis Sessions

19:30 Data pipeline run, 4 Crystal Society debates (QB, RB2, FLEX, D/ST), initial lineup set.

Initial Analysis

Data Pipeline

ESPN roster/matchup data fetched
Bayesian posteriors generated
MC density histograms created
XGB predictions generated

Key Debates Run

QB (4/4): Brissett over Darnold - CIN 32nd vs QB
RB2 (3/4): Spears over Hampton - JAX 32nd vs RB
FLEX (3/4): McMillan over MHJ - health > injury
D/ST (2-2): Rams by credibility weighting

Initial Projected Total: 133.0 pts

22:00 Analyzed Week 16 projection accuracy (29.4% mode accuracy), identified systematic biases, ran 2 new debates.

Week 16 Accuracy Analysis

Performance Review

Week 16 Result: WIN (95.1 vs 85.1)
LLM Mode Accuracy: 29.4% (5/17 correct)
Mean Absolute Error: 6.30 pts

Systematic Biases Found

Position	Bias	Direction
QB	-10.8 pts	OVER-projected
RB	+3.0 pts	UNDER-projected
TE	+7.9 pts	UNDER-projected
D/ST	-4.0 pts	OVER-projected

Week 16 Validation

MHJ injury call CORRECT: 15.0 proj → 2.4 actual
McMillan underestimated: 13.0 proj → 19.3 actual (BOOM)
Spears underestimated: 10.0 proj → 21.5 actual (BOOM)
Johnson underestimated: 9.0 proj → 16.9 actual (BOOM)
Brissett overestimated: 21.0 proj → 10.6 actual

Historical Trends (Weeks 12-15)

LLM beats ESPN every week (5.54 vs 6.05 MAE)
Best projected: Spears (1.0 error), Brissett (1.7)
Worst projected: JSN (13.2 error), J. Williams (9.3)

22:15 Ran 2 new Crystal Society debates for kicker and TE positions based on Week 16 learnings.

New Debates (Post-Retrospective)

Debate #5: Kicker (3/4)

Question: Myers vs Mevis vs McPherson

Key Finding: McPherson OUT (IR groin injury)

Kicker	Week 16	Trend	Result
Mevis	13.0	HOT	WINNER
Myers	2.0	BUST	Keep as backup
McPherson	IR	OUT	Eliminated

Action: ADD Mevis, DROP Jordan Love

Debate #6: TE (4/4 Unanimous)

Question: Juwan Johnson vs Hunter Henry

Metric	Johnson	Henry
Boom Prob	30.0%	11.6%
Bust Prob	24.9%	50.6%
Week 16	16.9	2.8
Matchup	vs LV (soft)	vs BAL (tough)

Result: Keep Johnson (unanimous)

22:30 Adjusted all projections based on Week 16 bias analysis. Revised total: ~136 pts.

Revised Week 17 Projections

Bias Adjustments Applied

Player	Original	Revised	Adjustment
Brissett	24.0	22.0	QB over-proj
Spears	10.0	14.0	RB under-proj
Johnson	12.0	14.0	TE under-proj
Irving	16.0	14.0	RB regression
McMillan	16.0	17.0	Week 16 boom
Mevis (NEW)	-	10.0	Add from FA

Final Lineup

Slot	Player	Proj
QB	Brissett	22.0
RB1	Irving	14.0
RB2	Spears	14.0
WR1	JSN	20.0
WR2	Williams	18.0
TE	Johnson	14.0
FLEX	McMillan	17.0
K	Mevis	10.0
D/ST	Rams	7.0

REVISED TOTAL: ~136 pts

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

Jordan Love: Concussion protocol. DROP for Mevis add.
Evan McPherson: OUT (IR groin) - eliminates kicker stack opportunity
MHJ: Heel injury validated Week 16 (2.4 pts). BENCHED.
Burrow: Left Week 16 game (Flacco in). Monitor for Week 17.

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

ARI @ CIN: 50.5 total (HIGHEST Week 17) - SHOOTOUT
DET @ SF: 50.0 total - High-scoring MNF
SEA vs CAR: 43.5 total - SEA favored

Defense Rankings (Week 17 Opponents)

CIN vs QB: 32nd (WORST) - 23.85 FPPG
CIN vs WR: 32nd (WORST) - 43.49 FPPG
JAX vs RB: 32nd (WORST) - 31.75 FPPG

All 6 Crystal Society Debates

QB (4/4): Brissett - CIN elite matchup
RB2 (3/4): Spears - JAX elite matchup
FLEX (3/4): McMillan - health > injury
D/ST (2-2): Rams - credibility weighting
K (3/4): Mevis - McPherson OUT, Myers bust
TE (4/4): Johnson - boom prob + Week 16 validation

Week 16 Learnings Applied

Mode accuracy was 29.4% - room to improve
QB over-projected by 10.8 pts → reduce Brissett ceiling
RB/TE under-projected → raise Spears, Johnson
BOOM predictions often busted (3/4 wrong)
BUST predictions for RBs often boomed

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Championship Finals QB: Brissett or Darnold?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Championship week demands MAXIMUM CEILING. Brissett faces CIN - the WORST pass defense in the NFL (32nd, allows 23.85 FPPG). Game total 50.5 is the HIGHEST in Week 17. Indoor dome eliminates weather risk. MC shows 73.8% BOOM probability.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Even from risk-minimization perspective, Brissett is safer. XGB bust: 36.4% vs 44% (Darnold). Darnold faces cold weather (28°F) at GB. ESPN projection 18.74 vs 13.9. Brissetts floor is Darnolds ceiling.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Expected value calculation heavily favors Brissett. MC EV 17.5 vs 14.7. Championship strategy requires ceiling, and Brissetts 73.8% MC boom combined with elite matchup provides optimal risk-adjusted upside.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

While consensus is correct, note XGB discrepancy: only 13.5% boom vs MC 73.8% boom. XGB suggests 50% MODERATE mode. But championship week IS the time to trust elite matchup over XGB conservative prediction.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "CIN defense rank: 32nd vs QB (23.85 FPPG)" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MC Boom Prob: 73.8% Brissett" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Game total: 50.5 (highest Week 17)" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "ESPN projections: 18.74 vs 13.9" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "XGB bust: 36.4% vs 44%" CORRECT

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] No fact-check issues. Claims verified. [Challenge ] XGB 13.5% boom as warning [Concede] Model disagreement IS a data point, but elite matchup trumps model caution in championships.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] All claims verified. [Challenge ] Game script could favor Conner [Concede] XGB model disagreement IS concerning. But even 18-20 pts (moderate) beats Darnolds 13.9.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] No issues. [Challenge ] Conner usage concern [Concede] The 60-point gap between MC boom and XGB boom IS the largest divergence seen. Uncertainty acknowledged.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Challenged by 3 agents on XGB warning. XGB has poor forward validation (44% mode accuracy). [Challenge ] 20+ every dome start [Concede] Matchup IS elite. CIN 32nd, 50.5 total, dome - all verified. Even moderate mode beats Darnold.

Round 3: Final Vote

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Championship won by elite matchups. CIN 32nd (verified), 50.5 total (verified), dome. MC 73.8% boom reflects historical dominance. Trust the matchup.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Pessimistic case favors Brissett. XGB 36.4% bust vs 44% (Darnold). ESPN 18.74 vs 13.9. Cold weather adds risk to Darnold. Brissetts floor is Darnolds ceiling.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

EV and championship strategy align. MC EV 17.5 vs 14.7, boom 73.8% vs 25%, matchup quality. LLM 24.0 pts BOOM justified. This is the week we stashed Brissett for.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Searched for contrarian angle - found none. CIN worst QB defense (verified), 50.5 total (verified), dome (verified). Darnold faces cold + worse matchup. Data is unanimous.

Consensus: Majority

Start Jacoby Brissett

0/4 agents agree

Week 17 Championship D/ST Decision: Chargers D/ST (LAC vs HOU) or Rams D/ST (LAR vs ATL)?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Despite Week 16's failure, Chargers have ELITE XGB signal (55% boom vs Rams' 11%) and superior MC boom (36% vs 22%). Championship week demands ceiling over safety.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

XGB correctly predicted Rams bust Week 16 (59% → 4.0 pts) while FAILING on Chargers (55% boom → 4.0 pts). Rams rank 4th in turnover rate, 9th in pressure rate.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS LOW

DROP: | ADD:

MC EV favors Chargers 9.4 vs 8.9. Championship context demands ceiling over EV. Both scored 4.0 Week 16. Tiebreaker: MAX CEILING strategy.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

CJ Stroud HEALTHY and HOT (26.7 PPG, 6-game win streak). Don't chase XGB 55% boom that just failed. Rams elite metrics (3rd scoring rate, 4th EPA).

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Retract 'statistically rare' claim - no data to support [Challenge ] ESPN projections [Concede] CONTRARIAN right - Stroud is healthy and hot

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] LLM superior to ESPN, but LLM also failed Week 16 on Chargers [Challenge ] MC EV [Concede] Both scored 4.0 Week 16 - floors equivalent

⚖️ SYNTHESIS LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] FLOOR valid - MC may be XGB-contaminated (though MC uses historical data) [Challenge ] gambler's fallacy [Concede] XGB worked on Rams bust - may be asymmetry in D/ST predictions

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] SYNTHESIS right about gambler's fallacy - my point is XGB MODEL FLAW [Challenge ] LLM projection [Concede] FLOOR right - XGB correctly called Rams bust

Round 3: Final Vote

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Championship = swing for fences. Chargers 36% MC boom, better matchup (Texans 31st O-line), home field. Trust ceiling play.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

XGB worked on Rams, failed on Chargers. Elite metrics (3rd scoring, 4th turnovers) vs Falcons allowing 8.75 PPG to D/STs. Rams.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS LOW

DROP: | ADD:

51-49 Chargers due to MAX CEILING strategy. If EV optimization, would say Rams. But ceiling mandate = higher variance. Barely Chargers.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Texans 9-5 (MOTIVATED). Falcons eliminated (UNMOTIVATED). Rams 3rd scoring vs low-effort Falcons = true ceiling. Rams.

Consensus: Majority

0/4 agents agree

Week 17 Championship FLEX: MHJ vs McMillan vs Keenan Allen

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ offers the HIGHEST boom probability (27% MC, 42% XGB) against the NFL's WORST WR defense (CIN 32nd, 43.49 FPPG allowed) in the highest-scoring game of Week 17 (50.5 total). Despite XGB's Week 16 failure, the convergence of elite matchup + highest ceiling makes this the max-upside play.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Championship week demands reliability, not injury gambles. McMillan offers the SAME elite CIN matchup as MHJ but with ZERO injury risk (100% healthy vs. MHJ's heel concern). His 49% MC bust prob is concerning, but it's better than risking MHJ playing 50% snaps as a decoy.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

McMillan has the HIGHEST MC expected value (12.4 pts vs MHJ 12.0, Allen 11.5) with full health certainty. While his boom probability is lower (14% vs MHJ's 27%), his boom MEAN is higher (27.6 vs 20.1), and the injury discount on MHJ is real.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ is the CONSENSUS trap - Week 16 showed 42% XGB boom producing 2.4 pts (bust). McMillan is the contrarian edge: SAME elite CIN matchup, ZERO injury risk, and his 27.6 boom mean is actually HIGHER than MHJ's 20.1.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "MC 27% BOOM, XGB 42% BOOM for MHJ" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "CIN 32nd vs WR (43.49 FPPG)" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan 100% healthy" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan MC EV 12.4 pts (highest)" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan boom mean 27.6 > MHJ 20.1" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ Week 16: XGB 42% → 2.4 pts actual" CORRECT

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] All claims verified by fact-checker [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 0.4 EV edge decides this [Concede] MHJ's injury creates snap count uncertainty. Week 16 is valid cautionary tale.

🔽 FLOOR LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] All data confirmed [Challenge CEILING] 27% boom makes MHJ clear choice [Concede] McMillan's 14% boom is uncomfortably low for championship swing.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] EV calculations verified [Challenge CEILING] Boom prob alone decides [Concede] 0.4 EV edge is small. Should weight upside more in finals.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Week 16 MHJ example validated [Challenge CEILING] MHJ is max-upside [Concede] If MHJ plays full snaps, he's better ceiling. But that's a BIG if.

Round 3: Final Vote

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Lone holdout. This is CHAMPIONSHIP - don't win titles playing safe. MHJ 27% boom vs worst pass D in highest-scoring game. Championships won betting on 20+ upside, not avoiding busts. You're playing not to lose. I'm playing to WIN.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Week 16 PROVED injured MHJ + elite matchup = 2.4 pts. Need BASELINE even in finals - 2-5 pt floor loses championships too. McMillan = same matchup + snap certainty.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Final: McMillan. MHJ effective boom (27% × 0.6 = 16%) worse than McMillan 14% at full snaps. Higher EV (12.4 vs 12.0), comparable risk-adjusted boom, eliminates catastrophic bust.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

HIGH confidence now. ESPN proj McMillan 13.1 > MHJ 12.2 is the edge. Vegas prices injury risk better than instinct. CEILING chases narrative, ignores market signals. Fade injured 'must-start.'

Consensus: Majority

Start TETAIROA McMILLAN in FLEX

0/4 agents agree

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

6.1

Our Team MAE

17 players

5.1

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.7

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.2	18.0	2.4	-15.6
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.7	24.0	10.6	-13.4
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Opponent	RB	Kareem Hunt	11.0	-	0.2	-10.8
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	12.0	2.0	-10.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	16.0	7.1	-8.9
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.3	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	16.9	+6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	18.0	12.0	-6.0
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.7	-	2.0	-3.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	20.0	23.6	+3.6
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	16.0	19.3	+3.3
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	7.0	4.0	-3.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	14.0	16.5	+2.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.3	5.0	3.8	-1.2
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	6.0	7.1	+1.1
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.9	-	22.8	-1.1
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	14.1	-	13.2	-0.9
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	5.0	5.6	+0.6
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

7.1

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.8

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	8.0	+8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

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LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.