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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 18.7 | 24.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 15.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | NO | 8.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 19.9 | 20.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 13.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Harrison Mevis | 0.0 | --- | MEDIUM | ||
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ATL | 4.2 | 7.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| WR | Tetairoa McMillan | CIN | 13.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
DEBATE (3/4): Week 16 13.0 pts (HOT). Myers 2.0 bust. McPherson OUT (IR). START immediately.
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS Week 17 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins. UPDATED with Week 16 accuracy analysis (29.4% mode accuracy, QB over-projected by 10.8 pts, RB/TE under-projected). 6 Crystal Society debates: (1) Brissett 4/4 vs CIN worst QB defense, (2) Spears 3/4 for JAX worst RB defense, (3) McMillan 3/4 over injured MHJ, (4) Rams D/ST 2-2 tie resolved, (5) NEW: Mevis 3/4 over Myers (McPherson OUT on IR), (6) NEW: Johnson 4/4 over Hunter Henry. Key waiver move: ADD Mevis, DROP Love.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 10.6 | 18.7 | 24.0 | -13.4 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 7.1 | 15.2 | 16.0 | -8.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | ✓ 16.5 | 13.2 | 14.0 | +2.5 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | ✓ 12.0 | 15.9 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | ✓ 23.6 | 19.9 | 20.0 | +3.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 16.9 | 9.1 | 10.0 | +6.9 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 2.4 | 12.2 | 18.0 | -15.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | ✓ 2.0 | 8.1 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 4.0 | 4.2 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | +0.6 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 13.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | +7.5 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 7.1 | 11.2 | 6.0 | +1.1 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 3.8 | 17.3 | 5.0 | -1.2 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | ✓ 4.0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 19.3 | 13.1 | 16.0 | +3.3 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 21.5 | 8.7 | 10.0 | +11.5 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | ✓ 12.7 | 16.6 | --- | -3.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB | ✓ 0.2 | 11.0 | --- | -10.8 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | ✓ 8.3 | 15.2 | --- | -6.9 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR | ✓ 8.2 | 13.5 | --- | -5.3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | ✓ 13.2 | 14.1 | --- | -0.9 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | ✓ 6.7 | 16.8 | --- | -10.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 22.8 | 23.9 | --- | -1.1 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 11.0 | 8.0 | --- | +3.0 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 2.0 | 5.7 | --- | -3.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 15.5 | 14.8 | --- | +0.7 |
| Colby Parkinson (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 4.1 | 9.6 | --- | -5.5 |
| Darren Waller (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 7.0 | 9.3 | --- | -2.3 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 4.6 | 10.5 | --- | -5.9 |
| Michael Carter (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.5 | 11.0 | --- | -4.5 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 19.4 | 9.6 | --- | +9.8 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Injured Week 16 vs CHI. Only 6 days before Week 17 Saturday game @ BAL. Average protocol is 9 days. 70% likely OUT per reports. BAL is 3rd vs QB if he plays. Mode: BUST (protocol + elite defense). Projection: 5.0 pts (CONDITIONAL - if plays, else 0).
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 18.7 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM. CIN allows 23.85 FPPG to QBs (WORST in NFL, 32nd). Game total 50.5 (highest Week 17). CHAMPIONSHIP CEILING PLAY. Mode: BOOM (elite matchup overrides low XGB). Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 18-28).
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. MIA 29th vs RB (27.31 FPPG allowed). Clear lead back. Mode: MODERATE (good matchup but XGB bust signal). Projection: 16.0 pts (upper MODERATE range 8-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 51% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 38% BUST. TEN @ NO - uncertain. Timeshare with Henry. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-16).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 58% BUST. HOU game TBD. Starting RB role. Mode: MODERATE (volume play). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 60% BUST. NYG vs LV - Giants bad. Clear bust signal from both models. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 13% BOOM / 17% MODERATE / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. KC @ DEN - Minshew at QB. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs may rest with clinched #1. Mode: BUST (injury + rest scenario). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-8).
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM / 52% MODERATE. XGB: 11% BOOM / 23% BUST. SEA vs CAR - favorable matchup. WR1 in Seattle. Mode: MODERATE (high-end). Projection: 20.0 pts (top of MODERATE range 9-24).
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 15% BOOM / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (CIN 32nd vs WR, allows 43.49 FPPG). With MHJ limited, McMillan gets targets. Mode: MODERATE (matchup elite but role uncertainty). Projection: 16.0 pts (upper MODERATE range 8-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (!) / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (32nd vs WR). Heel injury lingering but CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - must ride ceiling. XGB 42% boom is highest on roster. Mode: BOOM (ceiling chase + elite matchup). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 14-28).
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: SEASON OVER. LCL tear Week 4 (Sep 29, 2024). Surgery performed. On IR. Source: NFL.com official transaction. Projection: 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 51% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 43% BUST. DET @ SF on MNF - tough matchup (SF 7th vs WR). But DET high-powered. Mode: MODERATE (ceiling capped by elite D). Projection: 18.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. GB @ BAL - tough D (9th vs WR). QB uncertainty (Love concussion, Willis shoulder). Had 0 catches in first half with Willis. Mode: BUST (QB disaster). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 2-10).
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 47% MODERATE. XGB: 19% BOOM / 56% BUST. NO vs TEN - neutral matchup. Derek Carr doubtful. Mode: MODERATE (Carr uncertainty). Projection: 10.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 6-15).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Injured Week 16 vs CHI. Only 6 days before Week 17 Saturday game @ BAL. Average protocol is 9 days. 70% likely OUT per reports. BAL is 3rd vs QB if he plays. Mode: BUST (protocol + elite defense). Projection: 5.0 pts (CONDITIONAL - if plays, else 0).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 18.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 27% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (!) / 22% BUST. ARI @ CIN - ELITE matchup (32nd vs WR). Heel injury lingering but CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - must ride ceiling. XGB 42% boom is highest on roster. Mode: BOOM (ceiling chase + elite matchup). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 14-28).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: SEASON OVER. LCL tear Week 4 (Sep 29, 2024). Surgery performed. On IR. Source: NFL.com official transaction. Projection: 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%
Notes: MC: 19% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 58% BUST. HOU game TBD. Starting RB role. Mode: MODERATE (volume play). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 23% BOOM / 22% BUST. SEA vs CAR - favorable game script. K1 all season (87 pts). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-14).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.5 | 13.0 | 24.0 | +15.5 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +5.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 8.5 | 9.0 | 19.0 | +10.5 |
| 12 | TEN | 8.5 | - | 13.0 | +4.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 8.1 | - | 14.0 | +5.9 |
| 10 | ARI | 8.5 | - | 15.0 | +6.5 |
| 9 | WSH | 8.5 | - | 9.0 | +0.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 8.1 | - | 9.0 | +0.9 |
| 6 | JAX | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 5 | TB | 8.1 | - | 4.0 | -4.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 7.8 | - | 13.0 | +5.2 |
| 3 | NO | 8.1 | - | 17.0 | +8.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 7.5 | - | 8.0 | +0.5 |
| 1 | SF | 8.3 | - | 8.0 | -0.3 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 60% BUST. NYG vs LV - Giants bad. Clear bust signal from both models. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 22% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 55% | Bust 15%
Notes: MC: 36% BOOM / 41% MODERATE. XGB: 55% BOOM / 15% BUST. LAC vs HOU - solid matchup. XGB shows strong boom signal (55%!). Mode: BOOM (XGB aligns). Projection: 12.0 pts (within BOOM range 10-20).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 5.2 | - | 14.0 | +8.8 |
| 14 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 10.0 | +4.8 |
| 13 | LV | 9.1 | - | 11.0 | +1.9 |
| 11 | JAX | 7.2 | - | -1.0 | -8.2 |
| 10 | PIT | 5.6 | - | 16.0 | +10.4 |
| 9 | TEN | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 5.8 | - | 13.0 | +7.2 |
| 7 | IND | 3.7 | - | -5.0 | -8.7 |
| 6 | MIA | 4.7 | - | 8.0 | +3.3 |
| 5 | WSH | 5.3 | - | 2.0 | -3.3 |
| 4 | NYG | 7.5 | - | 8.0 | +0.5 |
| 3 | DEN | 6.1 | - | 4.0 | -2.1 |
| 2 | LV | 5.8 | - | 14.0 | +8.2 |
| 1 | KC | 3.8 | - | 2.0 | -1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 13% BOOM / 17% MODERATE / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. KC @ DEN - Minshew at QB. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs may rest with clinched #1. Mode: BUST (injury + rest scenario). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-8).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. GB @ BAL - tough D (9th vs WR). QB uncertainty (Love concussion, Willis shoulder). Had 0 catches in first half with Willis. Mode: BUST (QB disaster). Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 2-10).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | JAX | 5.7 | 9.1 | 48% | 32% | 20% | HIGH | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 13.5 | 12.6 | 30% | 50% | 20% | MEDIUM | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | KC | 11.0 | 10.2 | 24% | 38% | 39% | MEDIUM | |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 16.6 | 17.2 | 18% | 59% | 23% | LOW | |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 16.8 | 17.2 | 17% | 63% | 20% | LOW | |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8.0 | 8.3 | 16% | 26% | 57% | LOW | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | CAR | 15.2 | 13.1 | 14% | 59% | 27% | LOW | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 14.1 | 12.5 | 8% | 36% | 56% | LOW | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 23.9 | 20.4 | 7% | 23% | 70% | LOW |
Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)
DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)
Kareem Hunt: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 39%)
Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)
Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)
Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)
Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)
Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)
Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
DEBATE (3/4): Week 16 13.0 pts (HOT). Myers 2.0 bust. McPherson OUT (IR). START immediately.
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 7.9 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.7 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.6 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 15% | 55% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 12.0 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.7 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 10.4 | 14% | 53% | 0.0% | |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.4 | 13% | 44% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.9 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.6 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.7 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 12.0 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.7 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.4 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.5 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7.9 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.7 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.8 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.6 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders D/ST | 7.7 | 24% | 38% | |
| Bears D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.4 | 15% | 55% |
Win Probability
Floor: -43.0 pts | Median: -0.3 pts | Ceiling: +41.1 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 24.0 | 4.4-28.0 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 16.0 | 5.0-23.4 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.7-24.5 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 20.0 | 6.4-30.3 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 3.7-21.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 4.3-26.2 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.9-16.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 12.0 | 1.0-18.1 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 12.0 | 5.4-19.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 5.0 | 6.7-27.3 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.6-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.2-15.2 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 4.9-25.3 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 6.0 | 4.6-21.8 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 1.0-18.2 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 35% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | MED | 17.1 | 6.4-27.9 | ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 20.5 | 7.6-39.4 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 1% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 13.1 | 3.4-27.0 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.3-20.1 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.7 | 5.0-22.8 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 3.3-30.0 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 17.2 | 8.2-29.1 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.1 | 0.5-17.8 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.8-14.7 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 27% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | HIGH | 14.8 | 5.8-25.3 | ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Michael Carter | RB | HIGH | 8.7 | 1.6-17.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 5.4-21.3 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.6-20.3 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Darren Waller | TE | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.1-23.4 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.3-18.9 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.1 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.3 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | BOOM | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.2 | 18.0 | BOOM | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.3 | 5.0 | BUST | 26.7% | 52.3% | 21.0% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | OUT | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 18.7 | 24.0 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.2 | 6.0 | BUST | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.3 | 6.0 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 19.9 | 20.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 7.0 | BUST | 10.6% | 29.7% | 59.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 7.5 | 5.0 | BUST | 9.6% | 30.1% | 60.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1993.5 | 1800.6 | +192.9 | 132.3 vs 124.1 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1856.2 | 1860.5 | -4.3 | 85.1 vs 95.1 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1917.9 | 1643.7 | +274.2 | 95.1 vs 85.1 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1884.0 | 1857.2 | +26.8 | 124.1 vs 132.3 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1853.6 | 1800.3 | +53.3 | 147.7 vs 68.4 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1583.4 | 1812.6 | -229.2 | 68.4 vs 147.7 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1791.8 | 1812.8 | -21.0 | 61.2 vs 138.1 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1803.0 | 1839.7 | -36.7 | 138.1 vs 61.2 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1757.8 | 1740.3 | +17.4 | 93.3 vs 93.4 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1746.9 | 1845.3 | -98.4 | 93.4 vs 93.3 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1715.6 | 1806.9 | -91.3 | 131.6 vs 117.3 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1815.2 | 1898.9 | -83.8 | 117.3 vs 131.6 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 132.3 | @ | 124.1 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| 4th and pinches | 85.1 | @ | 95.1 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 147.7 | @ | 68.4 | Meat Pistols |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 61.2 | @ | 138.1 | Moms rules |
| Smooth Roosters | 93.3 | @ | 93.4 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 131.6 | @ | 117.3 | Auto DraftKings |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
| Position | Bias | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| QB | -10.8 pts | OVER-projected |
| RB | +3.0 pts | UNDER-projected |
| TE | +7.9 pts | UNDER-projected |
| D/ST | -4.0 pts | OVER-projected |
Question: Myers vs Mevis vs McPherson
Key Finding: McPherson OUT (IR groin injury)
| Kicker | Week 16 | Trend | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mevis | 13.0 | HOT | WINNER |
| Myers | 2.0 | BUST | Keep as backup |
| McPherson | IR | OUT | Eliminated |
Action: ADD Mevis, DROP Jordan Love
Question: Juwan Johnson vs Hunter Henry
| Metric | Johnson | Henry |
|---|---|---|
| Boom Prob | 30.0% | 11.6% |
| Bust Prob | 24.9% | 50.6% |
| Week 16 | 16.9 | 2.8 |
| Matchup | vs LV (soft) | vs BAL (tough) |
Result: Keep Johnson (unanimous)
| Player | Original | Revised | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brissett | 24.0 | 22.0 | QB over-proj |
| Spears | 10.0 | 14.0 | RB under-proj |
| Johnson | 12.0 | 14.0 | TE under-proj |
| Irving | 16.0 | 14.0 | RB regression |
| McMillan | 16.0 | 17.0 | Week 16 boom |
| Mevis (NEW) | - | 10.0 | Add from FA |
| Slot | Player | Proj |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Brissett | 22.0 |
| RB1 | Irving | 14.0 |
| RB2 | Spears | 14.0 |
| WR1 | JSN | 20.0 |
| WR2 | Williams | 18.0 |
| TE | Johnson | 14.0 |
| FLEX | McMillan | 17.0 |
| K | Mevis | 10.0 |
| D/ST | Rams | 7.0 |
REVISED TOTAL: ~136 pts
No waiver recommendations this week.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.2 | 18.0 | 2.4 | -15.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.7 | 24.0 | 10.6 | -13.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Opponent | RB | Kareem Hunt | 11.0 | - | 0.2 | -10.8 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 7.1 | -8.9 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.3 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 16.9 | +6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 18.0 | 12.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.7 | - | 2.0 | -3.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 20.0 | 23.6 | +3.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 16.0 | 19.3 | +3.3 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 14.0 | 16.5 | +2.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | +1.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.9 | - | 22.8 | -1.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 14.1 | - | 13.2 | -0.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 8.0 | +8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.